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#1 | |
Keris forum moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Nova Scotia
Posts: 7,218
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No one has shown here that any pageants or ceremonies took place at a Durbar where a kora of this quality would have been used. Not in photographs or in written word about such Durbars. Your claim that the "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" is nothing more than double-speak in this context. IMO This type of informal fallacy doesn't really have much practical purpose in our field of study and discussion. Yes, i am quite familiar with the philosophical concept. For those who aren't you can read about it here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_ignorance However, in a case were a member comes to us seeking comments on a sword, while we are free to speculate, i believe we are obligated not to confuse the bejeezus out of him with completely unprovable flights of fancy. Yes, we probably can never know for sure that this sword was not sold in a market at a Durbar, which, i suppose, would add something to its historical value. At the same time we certainly cannot say that it was, nor should we be giving its new owner the impression that this completely unprovable possibility can ever rightfully be presented in a description of this sword, especially when so many other possibilities exist. |
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#2 |
Member
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Ann Arbor, MI
Posts: 5,503
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David,
I think that continuing this dialogue is fruitless: we are in different dimensions. I am trying to tell you that I agree with what you are saying about the uncertainty, but you hear that I insist on some certainty. Perhaps, I do not explain myself well... As to more outcomes for a situation with no evidence, there is alway a possibility in the future that such an evidence is going to announce itself: a sale receipt, collection record etc. Till then we are in a limbo. Rather a common situation in any research: the model was not good, the assay sensitivity sucked, the "n" was miscalculated in a power analysis.... As long as the evidence is theoretically obtainable, it will be obtained sooner or later. You are right: it is not good to plant seeds of unjustified hope. Just as proclaiming that the case is hopeless. In the absense of firm evidence we can only guess. Statistically, chances are ~95% that you are right. Just let's not forget about those little nasty 5% that this Kora might have been sold for real as a memento of the Great Durbar:-) I have seen enough cases of mild bladder infection progressing into full renal failure, and just a week ago I had a long phone conversation with a good colleague of mine, a very well-known medical researcher who had been found to have inoperable pancreatic cancer about 20 years ago... At a ripe age of 80+ he had been charged by our Society to develop a certain policy, and I am his sidekick. He drives me hard:-))) That is exactly how I wanted to present the case to the owner. If I phrased it badly, it's my fault. But the meaning was there. With best wishes, Ariel |
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#3 |
Member
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Russia
Posts: 1,042
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It's nice that we found out that the discussed sword - it's just a souvenir.. And most likely produced in the early 20th century. And the distinguished Berkley provided evidence of this.
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#4 |
Arms Historian
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Route 66
Posts: 10,284
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Very nicely explained Ariel, and nicely noted as well in accord Mahratt!!
Berkeley, beautifully done!!! You deserve the Nobel Peace Prize here!!!!!!! ![]() |
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