Currently the C.I.T.E.S. certification process has a very large backlog and I heard from a large auction house yesterday that the waiting period for processing is now as long as 9 months .
I would expect that baggage checked on flights to Turkey is closely monitored .
If they find it in the US ; you probably will lose it ; most likely for good .
As far as proceeding without one I would say that it will be the 'luck of the draw' .