David,
I think that continuing this dialogue is fruitless: we are in different dimensions. I am trying to tell you that I agree with what you are saying about the uncertainty, but you hear that I insist on some certainty. Perhaps, I do not explain myself well...
As to more outcomes for a situation with no evidence, there is alway a possibility in the future that such an evidence is going to announce itself: a sale receipt, collection record etc. Till then we are in a limbo. Rather a common situation in any research: the model was not good, the assay sensitivity sucked, the "n" was miscalculated in a power analysis.... As long as the evidence is theoretically obtainable, it will be obtained sooner or later.
You are right: it is not good to plant seeds of unjustified hope. Just as proclaiming that the case is hopeless. In the absense of firm evidence we can only guess. Statistically, chances are ~95% that you are right. Just let's not forget about those little nasty 5% that this Kora might have been sold for real as a memento of the Great Durbar:-) I have seen enough cases of mild bladder infection progressing into full renal failure, and just a week ago I had a long phone conversation with a good colleague of mine, a very well-known medical researcher who had been found to have inoperable pancreatic cancer about 20 years ago... At a ripe age of 80+ he had been charged by our Society to develop a certain policy, and I am his sidekick. He drives me hard:-)))
That is exactly how I wanted to present the case to the owner. If I phrased it badly, it's my fault. But the meaning was there.
With best wishes,
Ariel
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