Leaving aside all legal issues, I must say that realistically it is simply too late to apply for an export permit (at least in the U.S.) for export of pieces to be included in the History of Steel exhibition. This was the case months ago, so I wasn't in an enormous rush to get this information out, other than wanting to let you know the situation. The bureaucratic process is simply too slow, even in the best of circumstances.
I filed back in August an application for a permit to export some of my swords for this exhibition. I finally received a response from the FWS at the end of November, requesting additional information. After a series of exchanges of about a week-and-a-half (in which that "legal wrinkle" I described in the last post became clear), I finally got medieval on them and wrote a lengthy e-mail with the legal argument as to why they are not justified in requiring this additional information (they wanted proof that the things had been previously imported legally). It has now been about three weeks and I have not heard anything, one way or the other.
As you can see, the process takes an enormous amount of time. Whether or not I get my application approved in time for the exhibition, I am hopeful that it will be a test-case for those who come after me, such that later permit applications for ethnographic weapons & other items will receive the correct review, and hopefully easy approval.
We all know that it is possible to send antique items containing materials such as ivory, between or within countries, so history tells us that it is very very unlikely that a routine shipment will be stopped and confiscated. Also, it is a legal fact that if something is 100 years old it is not subject to CITES. However, each country has its own procedural laws & regulations that might be violated if the right procedure isn't followed -- the issue is the failure to get the permit, not a violation of CITES. The only story I have heard of an actual confiscation occurred in Germany, and it resulted in the complete loss of the item (as far as I know). This seems unnecessarily harsh, at least in the U.S., as violation of the laws makes one subject to a fine in most cases (jail time for really bad guys like trafficers in baby gorillas and such), and I just can't imagine that there is justification for permenantly confiscating an item that is not subject to CITES, simply because you failed to go through some administrative procedure.
Just for information, I have also heard that under Korean law almost anything with an edge will be confiscated if found (nothing to do with CITES, but rather with a restriction on weapons). They are apparently quite active in doing this, and the airport authority at one point finally auctioned off several thousands of these confiscated items that they had accumulated. So be forewarned.