The keris has continuously evolved since it first appeared on the scene over 1000 years ago. It is unlikely that it was called a keris back then, but it did possess sufficient of the characteristics of what was later called the keris for it to be recogniseable as one.
From about 1300 through to probably as recently as 1970 or so, the evolution of the keris expressed itself as the periodic appearance of new dhapurs and new pamors, as well as changes to its socio-religious status.
In the early 1980's when the Anak-anak ASKI came on the scene and began to produce new keris dhapurs as works of art, this development came under a lot of fire from the Surakarta traditionalists. The attitude was that if a keris did not conform to an already established dhapur, then it was not a keris. A work of art it might be, even a great work of art, but it could not be a keris.
The reasoning behind this attitude was that the only person who had the authority to approve any new dhapur was the ruler, and in the minds of the Surakarta elite, the only ruler who could possess this authority was the Susuhunan of Surakarta, who was the ruler of the senior branch of the House of Mataram. This attitude can of course generate argument with supporters of other royal houses, so we'll take it as read that there is room for disagreement with this stance.
So those early attempts at keris blade art were to a very great degree regarded as illegitimate.
But in recent years a new wind has blown through the keris world in Indonesia. In line with changes in the political atmosphere, Jack is now as good as his master --- well, almost as good, at least in the eyes of the younger generation, so royal endorsement of dhapurs no longer seems to be necessary.
The hard-core Kejawen traditionalists will undoubtedly continue to adopt the attitude that a dhapur needs to be legitimated by the Ruler before it can be regarded as a proper keris. I must admit, I'm a bit inclined this way myself. There is a lot of ticky-tacky bling out there with new and recent keris creations, it is quite difficult to find good taste and genuine quality, rather than something that just looks great in a photo. I personally much prefer excellence of execution within already established parameters, and my personal guideline is that I will only ever spend money on keris that comply with this.
If we examine Indonesian, and most particularly Javanese social patterns, we find that the society as a whole, and also segments of the society, tend to go through "seasons", where something will become overwhelmingly popular for a while, and then sink into obscurity. I have seen the rise of the keris from virtual obscurity in Jawa during the late 1960's, to become a major art movement at the present time. Based upon what we can observe in the past in this society, I am inclined to believe that right at this moment we are at a tipping point where keris will gradually begin to slide back into obscurity in Indonesia. They will once again become the province of only a few really dedicated and culture conscious people, as they were prior to the explosion of the last few years. From my personal point of view, this is not such a bad thing. When the truth of the keris is finally revealed I believe most culturally aware people will concur with my opinion that there is too much commercialism and too much intensity in the present keris culture.
So, future development?
Probably even more extreme forms, more and more artistic enhancement, and eventually a changing of the seasons.
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